B-Five Simleague

Ich glaube nicht, dass die Warriors den Rekord der Bulls brechen werden. Ich mein sie müssten noch 51 Siege machen um das zu schaffen.
Sobald die erste Niederlage kommt, werden ein paar andere dazu kommen.

(09.12.2015, 01:16)ice schrieb: [ -> ]Ich glaube nicht, dass die Warriors den Rekord der Bulls brechen werden. Ich mein sie müssten noch 51 Siege machen um das zu schaffen.
Sobald die erste Niederlage kommt, werden ein paar andere dazu kommen.

Sie haben aber gute Chancen, wie dieser Artikel anschaulich zeigt: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-...era-bulls/


It’s Time To Take The Warriors’ Chances Of Going 73-9 Seriously
By KYLE WAGNER

FiveThirtyEight’s 2015-16 NBA predictions post dropped on Monday and included, right up at the top, a detail remarkable enough to elicit a double-take from any NBA fan still fogging a mirror: the Warriors’ projected record. As of this writing it sits at a tidy 72-10 — as in the same 72-10 that MJ’s Bulls put up in the 1995-96 season, and the standing record for the most wins ever in an NBA regular season.

By now there’s a whole cottage industry dedicated to handicapping the Warriors. On Monday, our colleagues at ESPN Stats & Info published an article about whether Golden State had a shot at breaking the 1995-96 Bulls’ record. They found that the Warriors had a 45 percent chance of getting to at least 72 wins and a 31 percent chance of at least 73. Our CARM-Elo projection is a little more bullish: It has the odds of 72+ wins at 54 percent, and 73+ wins at 44 percent.

Golden State’s odds of hitting astonishing win totals — we’ve highlighted a few milestones in the table next to this paragraph, like the one-in-four chance the Warriors win at least 75 games — are probably a good deal higher than you’ll see in other models, or in the betting markets, where the Warriors are still about a 3-to-1 underdog to hit 73. That’s for — we think — a pretty good reason. One of the advantages of the CARM-Elo projection is that it allows runs of good play (in the simulation) to inform future performance, meaning hot and cold streaks can occur organically within the model.* 
With CARM-Elo, the spread of potential season outcomes will be a little wider than in other models, as it’s a little more capable of assigning extreme outcomes when prompted by extreme performance.
That’s helpful given that the Warriors are performing at the extreme reaches of professional basketball. Right now, they have an Elo of 1831, which is a franchise-high mark and the second-highest of all time, behind only the peak of Jordan’s ’96 Bulls (1853), who floated above the Warriors’ current mark for only four games in the ’96 playoffs. For reference, the Boston Celtics have the third-highest franchise peak ever, at just 1816. A falling piano could takeSteph Curry’s size 13s off at the ankle on his way to the arena tonight, and Golden State’s sustained level of play this season would already put it right there at the top of the short list of great NBA squads.



Still, bear in mind: Sensitivity to excellence (and awfulness) doesn’t mean the model simply takes the current data and makes it the new baseline. Case in point: The projection depresses the 2015 Dubs’ point differential of 14.9, which would be a record, to an average of 12.6 across all 10,000 simulations. This is the expected outcome once the model takes into account regression to the mean, a bigger sample size and all the other flattening effects near to disbelievers’ nagging hearts, yet it’s still a few ticks higher than the second-place mark of 12.3, set by the 1971-72 Lakers.

What the model can’t account for is the possibility that Golden State clinches home court some time around the trade deadline and suspends its starting five in carbonite. But then, that isn’t really what we’re looking to measure here, anyway. “Will the Warriors break the record, given all the external incentives not to?” is a much less interesting question than canthey. To answer the latter: There’s a damn good chance they can.

* This happens because the model adjusts each team’s Elo rating after each game in the simulation. So if a team wins one simulated game, its rating goes up, and it is slightly more likely to win the next. When it loses a game, the same is true in reverse.

Den Artikel hab ich gestern auch gesehen. Ist schon beängstigend, was GSW da abbrennt.

Aber ich glaube trotzdem dass die Bulls die Warriors in einer Best of 7 Serie besiegen würden...

War knapp heute Nacht gegen Boston.

nun ist es gegen die bucks passiert,hätte eher gedacht das es gegen ein Team passiert wo ein Superstar ein 40+game raushaut

Was war das für eine lahme trade deadline. Stündlich wurden irgendwelche blockbuster angekündigt und dann passiert gar nichts.
Echt bescheiden...

Fand sie eigentlich ok - war klar, dass am Ende nicht die ganz großen Jungs wechseln werden. Dafür hat es Howard fast erwischt...

(19.02.2016, 06:34)Stevo schrieb: [ -> ]Fand sie eigentlich ok - war klar, dass am Ende nicht die ganz großen Jungs wechseln werden. Dafür hat es Howard fast erwischt...

Muss mich loop anschließen, doch alles sehr enttäuschend. Und das Howard geht, damit hatte ich eigentlich fest gerechnet.

Aber zur Begründung:

Zitat:That’s why the trade deadline was so quiet around the NBA—teams shied away from deals involving big-name players that could swing their playoff chances because there’s an unavoidable sense that nothing any franchise does with its roster will be enough to contend with the juggernaut in the Bay Area.

Was die Spurs derzeit spielen ist wahnsinn. Die Warriors werden kaum was machen können wenn das so weitergeht.